How many 4th quarter shutouts can one man get away with?

Baldwin mistake No. 1: Shaving that mustache

The "Fire Dave Baldwin" bandwagon is built, it is gaining some serious steam and there are a lot of people hopping on board. Simply put, 2-5 at this point in the season, with the schedule Utah State has played is unacceptable. On top of that, the 10-21 career record thus far with Baldwin at the helm is bad enough that whatever "success" you want to claim Baldwin has brought, what with having the No. 12 ranked offense in 2009 and currently being No. 27 in total offense. The bottom line is wins and losses, and one of those two stats is piling up almost as fast as the years since USU's last bowl game appearance.

Of all other teams in the top 30 in total offense in the NCAA this season, the only team with as poor of a record as Utah State is Arizona, who you could make a solid case for having played a slightly tougher schedule than the Aggies up to this point. That claim is backed mainly by the back-to-back-to-back-to-back weeks where they played No. 3 Oklahoma State, No. 4 Stanford, No. 7 Oregon and No. 20 USC (in other words, I'm gonna give them a pass here).


Total offense aside, Baldwin has proven to this point that when the game is on the line, he's much more likely to disappear completely than he is to properly orchestrate a game-winning drive. Saturday's game against Louisiana Tech is a prime example of this incompetency, particularly in the strategy he continually tried in that game of sending just one wide receiver on a route and banking the entire play on both getting enough protection for quarterback Chuckie Keeton and that receiver getting open against the single coverage. The total result of the drive was a four play, nine yard drive, with a timeout wasted as well.

The Louisiana Tech game marked the second straight game in which USU was shutout in the 4th quarter and the fifth time this season that the Aggies scored fewer than 10 points in the 4th quarter. Also over the past five games, USU has scored a total of just 17 points in the 4th quarter of games.

In 31 games since Baldwin took over as offensive coordinator at Utah State, some other numbers are as follows.

14 times USU has been shutout in the 4th quarter of games (22 times scoreless in quarters 1-3 combined)
5 times USU has been shutout for the entire second half (shutout in first half only twice)
1 time, USU has trailed at the start of the 4th quarter and won (Idaho 2009, game winning touchdown came following and Idaho fumble on their own 1 yard line)

Aside from the numbers and the inconsistent production, there have been a staggering handful of games in which the offense either massively underachieved against a mediocre team, or just flat out stopped producing when it had shown to be capable of moving the football. In other words, these are games in which the offense flat out failed the team because of a lack of production or adjustment throughout the game that eventually resulted in a loss in a game that USU would almost easily have won had the offense produced anywhere close to its potential.

2009 - New Mexico State, Nevada
2010 - Fresno State, Louisiana Tech, Idaho
2011 - Colorado State, BYU, Fresno State, Louisiana Tech

The problem here is that these games are happening more frequently. Some of that could be attributed to USU being a better team and in more games, but under that same theory, USU being a better team should make the offense more productive.

After seven games 35.86 points per game average is an output that could have USU indeed sitting at the 6-1 record where it should be at this point. Auburn flat out made some incredible plays to beat USU and that loss can't hang on Baldwin, but aside from that, every other game should have been a win.

Colorado State should never have been close enough for overtime to be forced, special teams mistakes and all (oh, BTW, Bill Busch should very much be on the hot seat as well). Keeton was completely reigned in in that game and for how well the run was working, a shot or six down field SHOULD have been a no-brainer.

With BYU, only giving Turbin the ball nine times is still maybe the least forgivable thing Baldwin has done. Not like No. 6 was averaging 13.7 yards per carry in that game or anything.

Fresno State was just a complete offensive shutdown after the first several drives and La Tech was like Baldwin never even gave a shit. No room for offensive adjustments there.

How many times does he have to hand off to Michael Smith up the middle for a no gain before realizing that No. 6 is your go-to guy for that kind of play? Or even Robert Marshall? I really can't help but wonder if he has any clue about who he has at his disposal. His play calling would indicate that answer to be "No." Not to knock Michael Smith, because he's been awesome at what he does well this season, but he's NEVER been good up the middle. Kerwynn Williams has even been significantly better up the middle throughout the past two years, but even still, handing off on 3rd and 1 to anybody NOT named Robert means you're doing it wrong. I don't care how much you love Michael Smith Dave (and Dave seems to REALLY love Michael Smith).

At this point, to think that Baldwin might suddenly turn a corner and become a good offensive coordinator is simply out of the question. The Good Dave/Bad Dave inter dilemma has raged on for too long and it has become clear that even if USU is lucky enough to get Good Dave for even two of the first three quarters to build some kind of lead, Bad Dave will always be coaching the 4th quarter. With that comes short offensive drives, minimal points and more time on the field for an already tired defense, putting the entire burden of winning a game on their shoulders.

It's just not working. There's a reason why a guy who can have a top 30 offense in the nation multiple times at Utah State is not coaching somewhere for an upper-tier BCS conference school. He is not a winner. He is not clutch. He is not the guy who will take Utah State bowling.

Baldwin needs to go.