Feb 28, 2012

Breaking down Robert Turbin's combine numbers

Sadly, this write-up will only be about one Utah State player at the NFL Combine rather than two. Bobby Wagner came down with pneumonia and wasn't able to participate, which really really sucks for him, but if his stock falls a bit because of it, some team might be getting a great linebacker in the third round rather than the first or second.

Anyway, Robert Turbin impressed a handful of people over the weekend at the combine, and really has probably earned a fairly good reputation among the NFL scouts. His official time in the 40-yard dash was 4.5 seconds, which is neither great, nor terrible. Considering that the best time by a running back at this combine was a 4.4 by Lamar Miller, with the next best checking in at 4.45. So in comparison, Turbin's 4.5 isn't at all bad in comparison.

What really opened some eyes was the 28 bench reps that Turbin busted out, tying Boise State's Doug Martin for the best total by a running back this year. Over the past seven years, there have only been 13 running backs to have reached 28 reps or better, so that's no small feat. He landed in the top 10 among running backs in both the vertical leap and broad jump drills too.

All in all, he did well enough to have the gushing bio on him that was written for his combine profile page. For anyone who missed that, it read...

Strengths
Turbin is very athletic. Has the size to be a thumper inside, but moves more like a shifty, quick back. Has very quick feet that he employs to stop and start instantaneously out of the backfield. Has a big frame that gets to full speed fast. A classic downhill runner who can run through linebackers and carry the pile. Was a threat throughout his career in the pass game. Has the speed, athleticism, and durability to wear down an NFL defense for an entire game. 

Weaknesses
The only thing that could keep Turbin off the field for an NFL offense early is his pass blocking. At Utah State, Turbin would whiff on blockers at times. The problem is his technique; he tends to get off balance and blown back into the passer. Cut blocks were an issue for him as well.

So, in a nutshell, his strengths add up to be the speed, athleticism and durability to wear down an NFL defense for an entire game. His weakness... pass blocking.

That's some pretty damn good kudos there.

While he was by no means, the star of the running backs at the combine (that would probably go to Virginia Tech's David Wilson). But to have an impressive showing where his strength and speed stacked up well with the other prospects to put on top of Turbin's college resume, things are looking good.

COMPARING TO CURRENT NFL STARS

Since I love historical comparisons, let's see how Turbin's numbers stack up to the combine numbers of the guys who made up the top eight rushers in the NFL this past season. (pardon the crappy formatting)


Player                              40-yard dash          Bench reps          Vertical          Broad jump

Maurice Jones-Drew            4.39                        18                        36 in.              116 in.
Ray Rice                            4.42                        23                        31.5 in.           119 in.
Michael Turner                    4.49                        22                        31 in.              114 in.
LeSean McCoy                   4.50                        17                        29 in.              107 in.  (Pro day results)
Arian Foster                        4.68                        23                        DNP                DNP     (Pro day results)
Frank Gore                          4.58                        DNP                    34 in.              109 in.  (Pro day results)
Marshawn Lynch                  4.46                        20                        35.5 in.           125 in.
Willis McGahee                                      Did not participate in combine or pro day
Robert Turbin                    4.50                         28                        36 in.              122 in.

As you can see, Turbin is right in the middle of that pack in 40 time, but had the best numbers in two other categories and was second best in another. And that's stacked up against the current elite of the NFL. Not to say it's a slam dunk that No. 6 turns out an NFL superstar, but that's just a little context as to what good running instincts can do for a career with good speed and strength.

Stay tuned on this!

BOBBY WAGNER

The level to which it sucks that he could not participate in the combine. I've got little doubt that he would have done well, and putting up solid combine numbers to compliment the insane amount of national hype he's already received this offseason could very well have propelled B-Wagz into the first round of the draft. He was looking like a mid-second rounder before the combine, and still very well could be, but pro day workout numbers never seem to hold quite the same weight that the official combine measurements do.

What is worth noting though is how abysmal of a combine Arizona State linebacker Vontaze Burfict had. Considered to be one of the top linebacker prospects in the draft, Burfict did everything possible to reassure scouts that his character issues appear to be here to stay. He already had the cloud over his head about his character, as well as concerns over the weight he has put on in the last year that slowed him down a lot this past football season.

Burfict only participated in three drills, but in each one he ranked dead-last among the linebackers. If Burfict's stock slides and teams are sour on him, that could be a good sign for Wagner to move ahead of Burfict on teams' linebacker boards.

If Wagner can put up some absurd numbers at a pro day workout, he just might be able to rebound from this whole setback.

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