Mar 1, 2012

The kid from Carrollton vs. Carroll

Remember how awesome TrueAggies.com was? 
MEDLIN VS. CARROLL
The season was maybe only one third of the way through when I started noticing how Preston Medlin's numbers were looking awfully comparable to a certain shooting guard who played for the Aggies a few years back.

Medlin's numbers across the board are nothing short of spectacular for any sophomore, but what really impresses is when you stack them up to the player who scored more points than any other Aggie ever. I don't want to make this sound like I'm dogging on Jaycee Carroll at all, because I'm stoked I had the chance to see him play. He was an unbelievable talent, played with a motor that never ran out of gas, and I believe that he is as good at shooting a basketball as anyone who has ever lived. If Medlin can churn out junior and senior seasons like Carroll had, that would be a whole other phenomenal feat of its own.

Let's just cut to the chase though. Let's stack up the averages from Carroll's sophomore season in 2006 versus Medlin's sophomore year this season.

                                                    Season statistics
Player                                   PPG          Reb.          Ast.          FG%           3pt%

Preston Medlin                      16.2            4.1           3.1          49.4%         42.9%
Jaycee Carroll                        16.3            3.5           2.7          46.5%         45.1%

As things are, Medlin has the edge in rebounds, assists and field goal percentage. There's also a very good chance that he takes the lead in points per game by the end of this season. Medlin though, unlike Carroll is a good defender. At times he is very good even.

What also makes this all impressive is that Carroll wasn't the go-to guy on that 2006 team. Nate Harris was the guy demanding double-teams down low that year and was a great passer out of the post to go along with things. Carroll had a decent amount more room to work with offensively with guys like Harris and Cass Matheus dominating the paint, and David Pak and Durrall Peterson both providing solid scoring ability from the rest of the backcourt.

Just for fun, let's stack up the statistics from conference play too in each guy's respective sophomore season.

                                                  Conference statistics
Player                                   PPG          Reb.          Ast.          FG%           3pt%

Preston Medlin                      17.8            4.4           2.6          51.4%         45.3%
Jaycee Carroll                        14.9            3.4           2.4          43.7%         47.3%

Medlin's conference numbers are improved from his overall season totals in four out of five categories, while Carroll's took a decline in four out of five. 

On the season numbers, Medlin needs to score just barely above his average for the last two games of the regular season, while staying hot from outside. The reason to believe Medlin could possibly take the cake in all five of those categories is because Medlin's numbers keep getting better as the season goes along. Putting an emphatic cap on that improvement was the most recent game against Idaho where Pre-Med went off for 32 points, eight rebounds and five assists. Stew Morrill called that performance, "a Jaycee Carroll game."

Not entirely true though... While Carroll scored 30+ a handful of times, and even topped the 40 point mark once, having five or more rebounds and assists never came along with that. Idaho was the first game where an Aggie player had scored 30 points while grabbing at least five rebounds and dishing at least five assists in more than six years.

QUICK HISTORY LESSON
The last player to go off for 30-5-5 in a single game was Nate Harris during a double-overtime loss at Fresno State in 2006. Harris scored 33 points, pulled down 12 boards and had five dimes in 44 minutes of play. As far as a player going for 30-5-5 in regulation? That had not happened since Stew Morrill has been at Utah State until Medlin unleashed that fury on Idaho.

In a way, it's fitting that Nate Harris was the last player to accomplish the 30-5-5 feat in a game. After being named first-team all-Big West in 2004 and 2005, Harris kept up that pace and earned first-team all-WAC honors in 2006. No other player in Utah State history has ever been named first-team all-conference three times.

MEDLIN COULD (AND SHOULD) BE THE NEXT 3X FIRST-TEAMER
If the season ended today, it would be absolute highway robbery to exclude Medlin for the all-WAC first team. He's currently third in the league in scoring, has been a hell of a defender all year along and his combined shooting percentages are the best of any guard in the conference. Assuming Deonte Burton is named WAC Player of the Year (even if it really should be Wendell McKines), Medlin should be a lock at that point considering his numbers are better than Burton's in every category except wins.

For the record, if the season ends to today, my five first-teamers are Burton, McKines, Kevin Olekaibe, Medlin and Vander Joaquim. The only real adjustment from that which I could see as even remotely justifiable would be to replace one of either Joaquim or Olekaibe with Malik Story. How the team's finish in the standings will likely largely determine how the all-WAC teams shake down though.

Like I said though, it would be highway robbery to exclude Medlin. For how stellar of percentages he shoots from the field and 3-point line, along with his scoring, rebound and assist totals, he's arguably the most complete player in the league. Not saying he's the best player overall, but he's capable of doing everything.

One would have to assume that for how complete his game is as a sophomore, Medlin should be a safe bet to land himself on the all-WAC first-team as a junior and senior too.

MEDLIN VS. CARROLL: THE VERDICT
I've made no secret on this site about my love of historical comparisons, hence this very article.

In Medlin's case, what he's doing is special. In appearance, he looks like the ultimate underdog that you'd love to root for. In reality his talent level is off the chain, making opponents the underdogs in basically any match-up. Still, you love to root for Medlin. He plays with some serious passion and isn't at all afraid to show it.

Carroll was so unstoppable a scoring force that he still managed to help lead one severely undersized and undertalented team to a 23-win season and a couple wins over a top 10 Nevada team. The next year he helped lead a pretty youth-loaded team to its first WAC championship. Also, Carroll's all-time scoring record at USU is plenty safe. Medlin would have to average about 27 points per game over his junior and senior seasons in order to break that. Credit that to a stellar freshman year from Carroll, which Medlin didn't really have.

Medlin still has the chance to claim an NCAA Tournament win or two over Carroll before it's all said and done though.

For now, it's important to recognize just how great of things we're seeing from Medlin right now. Rather than wait until it's all over to reflect back on how good it was, best enjoy the ride as it happens. And along the way, you can count on me to keep on throwing down more historical comparisons.

*BONUS CONTENT* - MEDLIN THE LEADER
 Tony Jones already wrote a bit on this topic, but I have a little extra to say on it. Stew Morrill held a press conference Tuesday, and among the topics was Medlin's game against Idaho and his leadership going forward from here.

Being a sophomore who had only seen very limited playing time prior to redshirting last year and who is on a team that had a returning all-WAC first-teamer in Brockeith Pane AND a team that was robbed of the senior leadership of Brady Jardine, it's easy to understand how Medlin might never have felt comfortable taking a very vocal role in trying to lead this year's team.

But the fact that Morrill actually challenged Medlin to be more of a team-leader the rest of this season and into the next two years should stand as a green light for the best player on this team to speak up and really take the reigns on things.

If his passion for leadership is anything like the passion and excitement he shows on the court, this team will be in good hands. Hell, maybe if he can get this team motivated for the rest of this year, we might see a strong finish to this year after all.

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