Here we go! Back into the bowl landscape for the first time in nearly a decade-and-a-half. To shed a little context on the rarity of this, the last time USU went bowling, members of this year's USU freshman class were just five years old. Since that last bowl season, the Aggies have had a record of 50-111. Just one other time outside of this season has Utah State won five games in a football season since 1997. It's been dark times that we're climbing out of, but if I had to guess, USU will be out of that hole for a little while now with Gary Andersen running this show.
Now though, history can go out the window. Now it comes down to delivering on the football field. Now it comes down to finishing out this roller coaster of a season the right way.
Team
Standing in the way of Utah State's first eight-win season since 1979 is a pretty solid Ohio team. On paper, the Bobcats look to be arguably tougher than any opponent the Aggies have faced this season. Offensively, Ohio comes in at No. 21 in the nation, which is second only to Nevada of any USU opponent this year, as well as one spot behind Utah State in the total offense rankings. Defensively, Ohio is also the second toughest team (behind only BYU) that USU will have faced this year, currently ranking No. 42 in total defense.
Much like USU, the Bobcats have done fairly well in close games, having four of their last five contests decided by one score or less and winning three out of those four close ones. Their only loss in that span was in the MAC championship game against Northern Illinois, where they blew a 20-point led en route to the loss, snapping a five-game win streak for the Bobcats.
Outside of almost every national ranking besides offense (where USU also excels), Ohio is right around the middle of the road nationally, leaving what would appear to be little-to-no holes in their team to exploit. However, seeing as how this season has been the tale of two seasons in many ways for Utah State, it's also tough to accurately measure where the Aggies would stand in the national rankings of things. What it really comes down to is that since Hawaii, Utah State has had an answer for everything, regardless of how dramatic they tend to make things.
Offense
The Bobcats are led offensively by their sophomore quarterback Tyler Tettleton, who is a legitimate dual-threat guy that should give USU's defense plenty to worry about. Tettleton has thrown for more than 3,000 yards on the year to go with 26 touchdowns. He has also gained 627 yards for nine touchdowns on the ground. On the receiving end of more than a third of Tettleton's passing yards has been LaVon Brazill, who is one of the premier pass catchers in the MAC with with 66 catches for 1,038 yards and 10 touchdowns.
On the ground, Donte Harden leads the team with 939 yards on the season. As a team, Ohio has reached the end zone only 17 times on the ground this year. In comparison, Robert Turbin alone has 19 rushing touchdowns. USU's entire team has 35. It's tough to really give either team a definitive advantage offensively. Ohio has a dual-threat QB and a superstar receiver. Utah State has a dynamite pocket passing QB, solid receiving core and a superstar running back.
Defense
As a team, the defensive unit is solid, despite none of the players being overly spectacular. Linebacker Noah Keller leads the team with 105 tackles on the year, while cornerback Travis Carrie is one of the anchors of the defensive backfield with a team-leading four interceptions on the year.
While they don't have a guy who can take over a game defensively like a Bobby Wagner or McKade Brady, they're solid across the board. More importantly, they're excellent at forcing turnovers. Playing in the MAC, which is a notoriously pass-happy conference, Ohio is likely to make life difficult on the USU passing game.
The biggest statistic that stands out is that Ohio's defense in the 4th quarter allows more points than any other. Their offense doesn't do them many favors there either, scoring the second least in the 4th of any quarter. This kind of thing would lead one to believe that if the game is close later in the game, the advantage would go to the Aggies, especially if USU's running game can get the Bobcats' defense worn out throughout the first three quarters.
Overall
Ohio's passing game should, in theory, give USU fits. Their running game is nothing to be too worried about, especially for a team as good against the run as the Aggies. While both teams have very good offenses, USU's running game is the only aspect for either team that really stands as an elite weapon on a national scale. The less USU has to rely on it's passing game, the less likely they are to fall victim to turnovers. So if the Aggies run game can get the job done one more time this year, they shouldn't struggle to put up points. From there, it'll be on the USU defense to keep Ohio out of the end zone to seal up Utah State's first bowl victory since 1993.
Bold predictions
- USU's top three running backs average 6.47 yards per carry. Ohio's top three only average 4.69. Aggies don't only control the running game, they dominate it.
- With LaVon Brazill being only 5'11, Nevin Lawson won't be at a size disadvantage and covers Brazill as tight as anyone has all year, getting one interception on a forced throw under pressure.
- Tyler Tettleton's sacks and rushes for a loss have amassed 231 yards on the year. At least once, Tettleton tries too hard to scramble out of pressure, goes backward and gets tackled to kill a drive.
- Kyle Gallagher loses his helmet on a hit at least once.
- Bobby Wagner finishes the game with 14 tackles or more.
- Ohio has about as many answers for Robert Turbin as every other team has had during No. 6's career at Utah State.... Which would be none.
Final Prediction: 38-27, Utah State
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