Oct 4, 2012

Utah State vs. BYU: Position Breakdown

Welp... Here it is...

Last time this was done regarding BYU back in basketball season, their fans lost their shit like this website has never seen before. But it can be fun to hear them whine (case and point), especially when a prediction comes about as close as you can come to totally nailing it.

Predicting football can be a little tougher though. There's a lot more positions that are tougher to have nailed down, injuries factor in quite a bit, and once-projected starters sometimes end up beat out for spots by this point in the season. But after five games each, there's enough out there to make a solid judgement about both teams.

On one hand, there's a team who is a chip-shot field goal away from being undefeated, with a trilling win over Utah mixed in with a few blowouts. On the other side is a 3-2 team who has pounded the weaklings they've played, but both above average teams have solidly outplayed them, even if the final scores didn't indicate it. And on both sides, you have very good defenses.


Let's get into it though...
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Offense

Everyone not suffering from a tragic case of denial knows that USU has a huge edge offensively. Prior to really diving into the hard numbers put up between two teams who have played pretty comparable schedules, some of these probably would have gone another way (receivers specifically). With unmet expectations and some injuries to both teams, this is how the positions shake down.

QUARTERBACKS
This one isn't even worth talking about. Regardless of if BYU goes with Taysom Hill or Riley Nelson, neither of them are near the level of Chuckie Keeton.
Edge: UTAH STATE

RUNNING BACKS
This one isn't the runaway pick that it was two weeks ago with BYU's Jamaal Williams having an impressive game against Hawaii. But the Cougars took a hit, albeit not a huge one, when Michael Alise went down. Still, BYU has nothing near the level of Kerwynn Williams, both in running or receiving. Joe Hill is a better second option than anything BYU has too.
Edge: UTAH STATE

RECEIVERS
Cody Hoffman is the best wideout either team has. Both the numbers and the eye-test show it. After that though, BYU takes a steep drop in production, with only two other guys having more than 100 receiving yards on the season thus far. Utah State has five guys over the 100-yard mark, and three of them have surpassed 200 yards. They also have more receiving touchdowns as a team and a quarterback capable of getting them the ball. Get ready for the Cougars to really lose it over this one.
Edge: UTAH STATE

OFFENSIVE LINE
This is a spot where injuries have taken their toll on both teams. Both have had question marks, both have a couple stars and both have a lot to prove on a big stage now.
Edge: TOSS UP

Defense

Now we get into the pride of each of these teams... BYU's defense currently comes in at No. 5 defense in the nation, Utah State is holding down No. 11, and both are looking like dominant units.

DEFENSIVE LINE
This is a spot where, were it not for injuries, BYU would have gotten the nod. As a team, BYU has allowed the lowest yards per carry in the country, while ranking second in rushing yards allowed per game. Those numbers had the benefit of facing a Utah team without John White however, and none of Washington State, Weber State or Hawaii are exactly rushing powerhouses. Utah State on the other hand has a healthy unit of guys going two-deep who are solid, but not spectacular. The difference-maker here though is injuries. With Eathyn Manumaleuna and Ian Dulan hurt, that takes a major toll on the Cougars' D-line. With a healthy and deep unit, the edge goes to the good guys.
Edge: Utah State

LINEBACKERS
Both teams are absolutely stacked at the linebacker position. Brandon Ogletree (the asshat that he is) has the most tackles of any player on either team, while Kyle Van Noy is a playmaking maching for BYU. For Utah State, Bojay Filimoeatu and Zach Vigil are the two big names wreaking havok on opposing teams, while both Jake Doughty and Kyler Fackrell have had monster games of their own this year. This is one though where as good as Utah State has been, it's hard to not give a slight edge to the bad guys here.
Edge: BYU

CORNERBACKS
Will Davis has been amazing in coverage this year and Nevin Lawson hasn't been far behind. Those two won't have their hands quite as full in coverage given the ineptitude that BYU has at quarterback. BYU has only allowed two passing touchdowns against them all year, and rank 11th in overall passing defense compared to 15th for USU.
Edge: BYU

SAFTIES
We can only wonder what might have been had McKade Brady not been a victim of one of the worst calls ever in last year's game... Still, Brady is back, improved, and has a hell of a wingman with him in Brian Suite. BYU's duo of Daniel Sorensen and Joe Sampson are solid, but Brady and Suite have been nothing short of stellar.
Edge: UTAH STATE
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All in all, Utah State's edges they hold offensively are substantial in everything but the receivers. The offensive lines are both solid, but also battling injuries. For BYU, their offense has essentially shut down against both good defenses they faced in Utah and Boise State. They made a few big plays late to make it interesting against Utah, but were stonewalled for the most part.

On defense, USU is essentially injury-free, while the Cougars are battling a few nagging injuries for key guys. Both offenses will be facing the toughest defenses they have gone against all year, so it will be interesting to see who can really make the big plays. Those big plays offensively are likely going to decide the eventual outcome of this game, and with Utah State having a lot more weapons offensively, a win on Friday night is looking pretty good for the Aggies!!

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: UTAH STATE WINS, 24-13

2 comments:

  1. Excellent analysis as usual Faf. Can't wait to whip some cougar tail. (that sounded really dirty)

    ReplyDelete